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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|