How Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results

The frequently changing summit is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in August produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.

The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Kristin Flores
Kristin Flores

A passionate poker strategist with over a decade of experience in competitive tournaments and coaching.