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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.